Question: What is the chance of the increasing intelligence of computers (soon to become quantum computers) developing into a singularity?

Chris Mansell answered on 19 Jun 2013:

Hi marlonpayne,

Opinions on this vary greatly. All people really have are opinions. Some of them have been thought though more carefully than others but no-one knows for sure. A silly thing that someone called Yogi Berra once said is, “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”

I think the above quote applies to your question because there are so many factors to consider. However, my personal thoughts are as follows.

Firstly, the progress in the performance of computers has been following a trend for the past few decades called Moore’s law. This is seen as a rough guide to what we might be able to expect in the future.

Secondly, physicists are very confident that we aren’t anywhere near approaching the limits of computers. I have heard people say that the companies that make computer chips are becoming less and less profitable. Hence, it could be economic factors that stop computers getting ever more powerful.

Thirdly, I think that if there is a technological singularity it won’t happen for quite a long time. I heard someone say that he will only start worrying about computers talking to each other and taking over the world when he can get his PC to recognise his printer.

Fourthly, a more immediate concern is that there is some evidence intelligent machines are starting to do thinks that could make people who do intellectual jobs redundant. Google Translate can do the job of a human translator. There is a computer program that can write newspaper articles. An IMB computer called Watson has won an American general knowledge quizz called Jeopardy. The iPhone’s Siri can listen to speech and answer basic questions.

I don’t know if this answers your question but I’ve tried to tell you what I know. I hope it was okay.

Chris